Redistricting likely protected the status quo but of 75 House districts, five could swing either way
SALT LAKE CITY – Utah’s 2021 redistricting produced significant shuffling of state legislative districts in Salt Lake County. But how these shifts might affect the makeup of elected representatives remains to be seen.
While voters had hoped for the new independent advisory redistricting commission to have a greater say in the process, Utah lawmakers kept to their own map-making skills to redistribute the state’s population into congressional, legislative, and school board districts.
The Princeton Gerrymandering Project (gerrymander.princeton.edu) gave their efforts a B for partisan fairness because the new lines favored incumbents regardless of political stripe. Of Utah’s 75 House representatives, 17 are Democrats and 58 are Republicans. That “B” meant they did better than average for that category, but bias still exists.
But the Princeton project flunked them for competitiveness, noting they were “very uncompetitive relative to other maps that could have been drawn.”
And in the category of geographic features, Utah’s legislative redistricting commission got a C for non-compact districts and a typical number of county splits. They could have done better, but also could have done worse.
According to the Princeton project, Utah now has a handful of “swing” districts in the competitive zone, meaning that voters fall in the range of 46.5 and 53.5 percent for Republicans and Democrats.
Those swing districts, many which now have new numbers due to redrawing of the lines, include 26, 30, 31, 35 and 37. Others are borderline competitive, including 10, 27, 34, 40, 41 and 42.
In these areas, races could be fierce and hard-fought.
From fryer to fire
Utah’s 2022 Legislative session ended at midnight March 4 – also the same day the five-day window to file for elected office closed at 5 p.m.
This meant that lawmakers not only had to recover quickly from the grueling 45-day frenzy on Capitol Hill, but also have to pivot quickly to upcoming party caucuses and campaigning for re-election.
In competitive districts, that can mean fending off multiple contenders.
For Judy Weeks Rohner – a West Valley City Republican – redistricting changed her district from 33 to 30, and she is one of six candidates who filed for the seat. Rohner faces an intra-party challenge from Republican Justin “Turk” Turcsanski, along with three Democratic candidates – Fatima Dirie, Jana Roundy Nordfelt and Sophia Hawes-Tingey – plus United Utah Party contender Evan Rodgers.
Last October, Republican Party delegates tapped Rohner to fill Craig Hall’s seat before he headed up to Weber County to serve as a District Court judge. Rohner’s District 30 definitely swings, according to Princeton’s calculations, leaning 48 percent Democratic to 52 percent Republican.
Democrat Rosemary Lesser also stepped into her District 10 House seat after a vote by party delegates in January 2021, due to the unexpected death of Rep. Lou Shurtliff. Shurtliff had served in the House from 1999 to 2008, and then again from 2018 to the time of her passing near the end of 2020.
Lesser’s District 10 ranks as borderline competitive, rated by Princeton as 44.35 percent Democrat and 55.65 percent Republican.
In addition to Lesser, two Republican women – Jill Koford and Lorraine Brown – have filed in House District 10.
Common ground
Lesser and Rohner shared some common ground, both fighting to get the sales tax off of food. But neither made much headway this session. Rohner’s HB203 and Lesser’s HB165 failed to come up for committee hearings, let alone make it to the House floor for larger debate. Lesser’s bill differed from Rohner’s in that it would have kept the tax on candy.
“That gave people a comparison on what the net result would be to Utah citizens,” Rohner said.
In December 2019, Rohner had been part of a bipartisan group that drove a successful statewide referendum to repeal legislative changes to the tax code that lawmakers had approved in special session earlier that month.
That legislation would have increased taxes on gas and food, Rohner said.
“We had a short amount of time to get signatures – but we did. It was a miracle.” Rohner said.
Lesser considered HB165 her “signature effort” this year.
“Although it didn’t pass, I was given the opportunity by virtually having a bill in place so I could offer a substitute on the House floor when the tax cut legislation came forward,” Lesser said.
Her arguments for removing the sales tax on food evidently struck a chord, Lesser said, spurring opinion pieces in both the Deseret News and The Salt Lake Tribune.
“People came up to me on both sides of the aisle and said I made a very persuasive argument in that it was not political – it was just the facts,” Lesser said. “And many people said they would support me next year on this.”
Last-night shock
Although they voted differently on Rep. Kera Birkeland’s controversial bill that ultimately banned transgender youth from participating in sports, both Lesser and Rohner were taken aback by Sen. Dan McCay’s surprise substitute that substantially changed the legislation at the last minute.
Lesser – an ob-gyn by profession – said she followed Birkeland’s HB11 from start to finish, and had early concerns about Birkeland’s commission to determine sports eligibility.
“Even that was not going in a particularly good direction,” Lesser said, “not the least of which is that $500,000 in taxpayer dollars to fund this commission was quite a bit of money for the single-digit number of students involved.”
Lesser also questioned having commission members appointed by legislative leadership, saying it “wasn’t the direction that I thought a medical board ought to be going.”
But Lesser was particularly appalled by McCay’s last minute ban. So she ended up voting against the bill at every opportunity.
Rohner – a retired US West executive, former PTSA president and “Grandma Judy” to many students in her grandchildren’s schools – consistently voted in favor of Birkeland’s bill, in part to show support for her efforts.
“I admire Rep. Birkeland for the hours she put in getting people to the table,” Rohner said.
However, she believes that McCay’s final changes to HB11 “went too far.”
“McCay’s actions blindsided a lot of us,” Rohner said. “We need to look at things in a different light. Life is not the same as it was when I was growing up and our entire world is changing.”
Utah Gov. Spencer Cox has vowed to veto Birkeland’s bill.
Shifting gears
As dictated by the calendar, legislators seeking re-election had to immediately pivot from legislative to campaign mode.
“Up until 2 a.m. this morning, my direction was 100 percent serving in the Legislature and doing my best job at that,” Lesser said the day after the session ended.
But mentally she had already begun to make that shift, describing her dedication to public service during a phone interview: “I have served my country in the Air Force, I’ve served women in this region – and so I want to serve in the Legislature.”
Going forward, she said her focus will be on community health.
“It’s all embracing – physical, mental, economic, food security and housing security,” Lesser said.
Representing a district that has swung both ways, Lesser said that a single label (i.e. Democrat or Republican) “does not define any single one of us.”
“We’re so much more complex than that. I’m a physician, veteran, mother and grandmother,” Lesser said. “I bring many different perspectives to this conversation.”
Rohner acknowledged the crowded field of candidates in District 30, and said she’ll do her best to represent her community and state. And she also draws from personal experience that fuels her desire to serve.
“I divorced my husband years ago and raised my son without child support,” Rohner said. “I know what it’s like for a single mother … to work hard. You just have to do that in order to survive sometimes.”
Getting re-elected could be a daunting task, but Rohner said she welcomes a good challenge.
“They said we couldn’t do the referendum – and we did. There were a lot of people who said I couldn’t get up to the Legislature – and I did,” Rohner said. “So we’ll see what happens. It’s another day.”
In the meantime, current lawmakers will continue to serve on interim committees throughout 2022, in preparation for future legislation. In addition to food tax legislation, Lesser hopes to garner support for extending postpartum care for new moms beyond the current 60 days.
Moving on
The Utah Legislature voted last November on new congressional, legislative and school board boundaries, with Gov. Cox signing that bill Nov. 12.
By mid-December, Millcreek officials announced they’d appointed former District 30 Rep. Mike Winder to be their new city manager starting March 7. So 2022 would be Winder’s final general session.
Winder’s District 30 and Rohner’s District 33 represented different parts of West Valley City. But redistricting caused 33 to exit West Valley City altogether and sprawl eastward to encompass Millcreek.
Winder credits intense growth in the southwest corner of the Salt Lake Valley for driving the need to redefine House district lines in such a way.
“They took Craig Hall’s old district (33) and dissolved it because the districts in our area all needed additional numbers,” Winder said. “So Karen Kwan took some, my district took some, Elizabeth Weight took some.”
As a former swing district representative, Winder described his mindset as that of a “right-of-center, common sense conservative.”
“I work hard to reflect the more moderate and pragmatic views of my district,” Winder said. “I was one of the very few legislators that had the endorsement of both Equality Utah on one end and the NRA on the other.”
Simply put, “it takes a broad coalition to win in these swing districts.”
