In politics, you’re either on message or you are losing. Let’s get to it.

Welcome to On Message, a weekly look at where the battle lines are drawn and who is winning the war of words.

This week… LOOKING AHEAD.

Last week, the Deseret News wrote a story outlining details of a poll in the U.S. Senate race. That wasn’t surprising as we are in the final stretch of a three-way primary race with two challengers trying to wrestle the Republican nomination away from two-term incumbent Mike Lee.

But that’s not what the poll was about. Instead, the poll was looking at the still-hypothetical races between the each of the three Republican challengers and the man waiting for the winner in the general election, Evan McMullin.

This seems both premature and, well, interesting. On one hand, can’t we finish the current election before we dive into the next one? But on the other hand, it is worth considering how each of these potential GOP nominees stacks up against the self-proclaimed Republican, independent with Democratic support who won’t caucus with either party.

Got all that?

Let’s start with the favorite. The poll shows Senator Mike Lee (the prohibitive favorite to claim the nomination) with a 41-37 lead over McMullin but with 19 percent still undecided.

That’s a pretty close race and one that should make the McMullin camp optimistic. Of course, in theory, the race should get tighter each step we take away from the convention, where Senator Lee’s base rules the day. That group gets diluted in a full-Republican primary field and even more so when you factor in Democrats, independents and voters who vote Republican when their only other choice is a Democrat, but aren’t in love with the arch-conservative wing.

How Lee can step a bit to the center against McMullin who is either a far-right Democrat or right-leaning Independent will be the key to the race.

Now, if the GOP nominee is Becky Edwards, the poll shows her with a one-point lead on McMullin 29-28 but with 37 percent still up for grabs.

The head-to-head with Isom shows McMullin leading 34-27 with 36 percent undecided.

So, the question becomes, does this type of information have any measurable impact on the race at hand? With your ballot sitting there ready to be filled out… how important is it that the GOP nominee wins in November? If you want one of the three to be the eventual winner, Lee may be your guy… maybe Edwards.

But I’d add this word of caution, these numbers have a plus-or-minus of almost 3.5 percent so the Lee race could, theoretically, be essentially a tie. Also, most Utahns aren’t really thinking about the November election at this point. There is a lot of time for messaging strategies to play out on the airwaves on on your social media feeds.

But, at the very least, it does look like the Senate race will be worth watching as summer gives way to autumn.

That’s it for this week.

More On Message in the next issue of the Utah Political Underground.

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