Welcome back from summer break and welcome to On Message, a weekly look at where the battle lines are drawn and who is winning the war of words.
This week… MOVING TO THE MIDDLE.
With summer winding down and Labor Day now in our rearview mirror, campaign season is in full swing in Utah and across the country.
Most campaigns in our state recognized that few voters spend much time watching TV in the summer so they save their money to spend on ads from now until Election Day.
So, buckle up, it’s going to get crazy.
Just how crazy depends on how competitive any given race is and which voters the candidates think they need to motivate to get out and vote.
Traditionally, this means coming a bit more back to the middle. Now that Republican candidates, for example, are not speaking only to the delegates or even primary voters, they are likely to spend a little less time talking about issues those voters care about more than the general election voters. That includes those who may be unaffiliated but lean Republican or Republican but not to the extent that they care until this late in the calendar.
So, instead of talking about gun control or immigration… they are going to hit on issues that impact a broader group of voters. I’d expect to hear a lot about inflation, gas prices and how it’s hurting middle-class families.
Democrats – always in a tough spot here in Utah – will find it tough to get a message that resonates. Nationally, they will try to convince voters that gas prices dropping every day is a good thing and drive their voters out on the abortion issue.
The one race that will require extra thought is the Lee-McMullin Senate race where the battle lines are not so easy to draw along issues. You have a Republican incumbent running against a challenger who has convinced Democrats he’s their best chance of winning, and now needs to convince enough moderate Republicans and unaffiliated voters that he’s enough of a traditional Republican to be worth a look.
I’d suspect that, knowing the Lee voters will turn out, Lee can come to the middle on his messaging to ensure McMullin doesn’t gain enough ground to make it competitive.
McMullin likely concedes that Lee voters aren’t persuadable so he has to appeal to voters who consider themsleves Republicans traditionally, but aren’t Trump Republicans.
Much more on that race over the next two months.
For now, pay close attention to the issues candidtaes focus on and you can get some insight into which group they think they need in order to celebrate on Election Night.
That’s it for this week.
More On Message in the next issue of the Utah Political Underground.
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