Polls show incumbent Mike Lee is the frontrunner in the race to be the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate but should he win, his two challengers still could play a part in the general election.
Hypothetically, Becky Edwards and Ally Isom could throw their support behind Lee, even though they have argued that the two-term senator is ineffective and needs to be replaced.
They also could step back from the fray and say nothing.
And, although it would be unlikely, Edwards and Isom could endorse Evan McMullin, a Republican-turned-independent running for the Senate.
The winner in the June 28 GOP primary will face off in the general election against McMullin, who ran as an independent for president in 2016. A majority of delegates at the Utah Democratic Party’s convention in April voted to back the former undercover CIA officer in his bid for the Senate seat.
Two third-party candidates, Libertarian James Hansen, who is a physics and geology high school teacher, and Independent American Tommy Williams also are on the Nov. 8 ballot.
Edwards, a former state legislator, and Isom, a community and business leader who has held several positions in state government, have not given any indication of what they would do if they lose in the primary.
Isom told Utah Political Underground that she doesn’t comment on hypotheticals.
“We are laser-focused on June 28,” she said in a text.
Edwards and her campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
The three Republican candidates each collected at least 28,000 verified signatures to run in the primary. Under Utah’s nominating system, which provides a dual path to get on the primary ballot, they also sought the endorsement of delegates at the state GOP convention on April 23.
Lee won handily, with nearly 71% of the vote. Edwards garnered nearly 12%, Isom won almost 10% and four other candidates captured the rest of the votes.
A recent Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll asked voters planning to vote in the primary who they would select if the election were held today. The results showed 49% would vote for Lee, 19% for Edwards and 6% for Isom, the Deseret News reported. The remaining 26% didn’t know who they would choose.
The poll was conducted by Dan Jones & Associates on May 7-13. The 503 respondents are Utah voters who are registered Republicans or unaffiliated but plan to register with the party. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
Support for an independent candidate
The race for the Senate seat has an unusual twist, with the Democrats choosing to support a non-Democrat. McMullin will appear on the ballot as an independent and he has said he will not caucus with either the Republicans or the Democrats.
McMullin, who called Donald Trump a “true threat” to democracy, left the Republican Party in 2016 and ran for president as an independent. He was backed by the nonprofit Better for America and was on the ballot in 11 states.
Nationwide, McMullin received 734,737 votes, or 0.54% of ballots cast for president. He came in third in Utah with 21.5% of the vote, trailing Trump, who received 45.5% of the vote, and Hillary Clinton, who got 27.5% of the vote.
At the Utah Democratic convention, McMullin won 57% of the delegate vote, defeating Democrat Kael Weston.
McMullin had been endorsed in the Senate race by Democrats who saw him as the best chance to unseat Lee, including former U.S. Rep. Ben McAdams and Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson. The move was controversial.
In announcing his support for McMullin in November, McAdams acknowledged there was opposition to the idea.
“I know I won’t agree with every position Evan takes,” he said in a tweet. “To fix what’s broken in our politics, it’s time to try something new. Utah deserves an independent who is free to look for good ideas and to work with anyone who helps solve problems facing our country. If principled Democrats, independents and Republicans join together in this movement, McMullin will win this race.”
McAdams said he does not want to speculate on whether Edwards and Isom will endorse McMullin and he is not making any endorsements in the Republican primary.
“I don’t think that’s my place as a former Democratic elected official,” he said. “I think we take this one step at the time and hope that the coalitions come together to get somebody new, get a new voice in the U.S. Senate.”
Many voters still undecided about who to support
Another recent Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll shows that in a Lee-McMullin general election matchup, 41% of respondents would vote for the incumbent senator and 37% would cast their ballots for the independent candidate, with 20% undecided and 4% saying they would vote for someone else.
If Edwards were running against McMullin, she would get 31% of the vote and he would get 29%, according to the poll. Many respondents, 34%, were undecided and 7% would choose someone else.
McMullin would get 34% of the vote to Isom’s 24% if the two were on the general election ballot. A substantial 36% were undecided and 7% wanted someone else.
Some numbers do not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Each question was answered by approximately 800 Utah voters and the poll was conducted May 24 to June 15. The margin of error on each of the three questions was plus or minus 3.45 percentage points.
When asked whether McMullin would ask for endorsements from Edwards and Isom if Lee moves on to the general election and whether their support could be a critical part of getting him elected, communications director Kelsey Koenen Witt said the campaign doesn’t want to speculate about primary results.
‘His endorsement didn’t mean a damn thing’
Political consultant Dave Hansen, who is not involved in the Senate race, said an endorsement is more helpful to candidates who are unknown because it gives them credibility. But the situation can be different with a well-known candidate, he said.
Hansen cited as an example Sen. Bob Bennett, who was defeated at the 2010 state convention in his bid to be the Utah Republican Party’s nominee in the primary by Tea Party supporters. Mitt Romney, who had run for president two years earlier, introduced the three-term incumbent to delegates.
“At the state convention, the most popular Republican at the time in the entire country was Mitt Romney,” Hansen said. “We all loved Mitt Romney, in Utah especially. He came out and spoke at the state convention endorsing Bob Bennett and the delegates went wild. They loved Mitt Romney. They thought he was the greatest thing in the world but his endorsement didn’t mean a damn thing. I don’t think he got Bob Bennett ten votes that day and Bob Bennett lost.”
Bennett’s defeat was one factor that led to the adoption of the two alternative ways in Utah for candidates to get on the ballot, by gathering signatures or by winning the delegate vote at the party convention.
Hansen doesn’t have a prediction on who, if anybody, Edwards or Isom would endorse. If they decide to support McMullin, that would hurt them in the long run because they would lose the chance of ever getting the Republican nomination if they ran for election, he said.
Lee needs to remember who his main opponent is, Hansen added.
“It’s not Evan McMullin. It’s Joe Biden,” he said.
‘It’s not a silver bullet’
Devin Wiser, executive director of the Walker Institute of Politics at Weber State University, is skeptical that endorsements from politicians can make much of a difference.
“If you get an array of endorsements from a certain crowd, I think that can put people’s minds at ease and they say, ‘OK, this guy clearly lines up with what I believe because all of these people that I also like are supporting him.’ If it’s just a one-off political endorsement, I’m not sure how much weight it carries,” said Wiser, who also is vice chair of the Davis County Republican Party.
Trump, who has been endorsing candidates in GOP primaries this year, has had mixed results, he said.
“He’s had several successes but he’s also had several disappointments with his endorsement picks,” Wiser said. “It’s not a panacea. It’s not a silver bullet.”
As a party official, Wiser stays neutral in GOP primary races and he has no insight into who, if anyone, unsuccessful candidates might endorse.
“The general expectation in this circumstance is that they get behind the Republican candidate that wins the primary and help them carry the baton and win the general election,” he said. “At the very least, the minimum expectation is that they just stay quiet.”
Wiser also said that the Democratic Party’s endorsement might hurt McMullin.
“In Utah, the majority of the electorate is Republican so I think that’s why he doesn’t want to cozy up too much to the Democrat Party,” he said.
Lisa Roskelley, who worked as communications director for Gov. Jon Huntsman and now does political and business consulting, also said endorsements don’t always boost a candidate’s chances. Some with endorsements win their races and others are defeated, and the situation is the same with office seekers without endorsements, she said.
A broad endorsement from a politician in support of a candidate has less impact than an endorsement coming from a neighbor who a voter knows and trusts, Roskelley said. Hearing about the neighbor’s reasons for backing a candidate can affect a voter’s decision more, she said.
“That’s not to say they’re not valuable,” Roskelley said of endorsements. “But I don’t think they’re the be-all and end-all for winning an election.”
