Poll Has DeSantis Tied With Trump Suggesting Utah GOP May Buck Red State Trend
A serious 2024 presidential poll of Utah voters has the GOP’s top two horses neck-and-neck. This comes after former President Donald Trump barely eked out 45 percent of the Beehive State vote in 2016. And he now faces mounting legal headwinds with 37 felony counts of espionage under federal indictment and another indictment for the Jan. 6 insurrection looming.
So, is the third time the charm for so-called never Trumpers in Zion? Is the fever really ready to break for Utah Republican voters willing to cast aside Trump and his hackneyed political narcissism for a more sober, if untested and uncharismatic, Ron DeSantis?
It’s certainly not the mood across the majority of red America, where opinion polls show the gap between Trump and DeSantis widening, not shrinking. But Utah Republicans, largely members of the LDS faith, have never fully embraced Trump and his often-bigoted brand of attack politics. After all, moderate Sen. Mitt Romney was elected here as was Gov. Spencer Cox.
In a polarized political climate rife with zero-sum slurs online and otherwise, Utah remains a bit of an outlier — more vanilla than vitriolic, nice in the face of nasty.
It hasn’t happened yet, but those ingredients may be enough next year to slingshot DeSantis narrowly past Trump’s rage machine.
“You have a candidate who has paid hush money to porn stars and has an uneasy relationship with the truth and that’s hard to lead the banner for a party that prides itself on character,” says Kelly Patterson, a political science professor with Brigham Young University’s Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. “It’s hard to imagine a candidate who can survive so many court appearances and such negative press over a sustained period of time. People do care about electability.”
For his part, DeSantis returns to the Beehive State Friday, July 21 for a campaign event with members of the state legislature — and the leadership has been invited.
“I’m afraid if my party nominates Trump,” Sen. Todd Weiler, R-Woods Cross says, “Biden will win again.”
All Tied on the Western Front
A recent Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll found Trump and DeSantis dead even at 28 percent among registered Republican voters, marking a big shift from polls this spring. Former Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney — a vocal critic of the former president following the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection — is the only other potential candidate in double digits at 11 percent, which also speaks to Utahns’ uneasiness with Trump.
In May, Trump was found liable for sexual abuse and defamation in a civil case. He faces two other prominent federal investigations surrounding his involvement in the Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol riots and for allegedly trying to overturn the outcome of President Joe Biden’s 2020 presidential election win.
After he outperformed conservative candidates in the midterm elections last fall, DeSantis was urged to run for president by a sizable group of Utah elected Republicans, who penned a letter to the Florida governor. A rising star, he was the presumed favorite to be the conservative alternative to the troubled Trump.
“Republicans have to be more than just anti-Biden,” Weiler told KSL.com, noting Trump has violated hallmark conservative principles such as fiscal responsibility and being pro-family. “I do think that the Republican Party since Trump has kind of had an identity crisis…What is it that we believe and what are we advocating for the future of the country. It’s easy to be against things, but that only gets you so far.”
Before stumbling on the campaign trail this summer, DeSantis led Trump in the Utah Hinckley poll with younger voters, voters with college degrees, and he enjoyed a 29-18 point advantage among members of the LDS Church.
A poll of Utah voters by Never Back Down, a political action committee backing DeSantis, showed the Florida governor well ahead of Trump 46 percent to 35 percent in a two-way matchup.
After engaging with Republican delegates across the state as new party chair, Robert Axson says the 28-28 tie in the primary poll does not surprise him. DeSantis is not yet a household name, he notes, but his performance in Florida surrounding the Covid and economic recovery over the past two years is to his benefit.
“I get the sense that people really want to have honest, frank conversations,” Axson explains. “There’s certainly going to be issues we all have with any given candidate. On balance, do you still prefer somebody despite their shortcomings because the alternative is not viable?”
Axson says he appreciates DeSantis’ visits to Utah, including for the GOP convention, and encourages the rest of the field to do the same.
“Utah’s relevance on the national stage is at a place where it justifies all these candidates to visit the state and pitch their case to Utah’s voters,” he says. “I can’t stress enough the consensus I hear that this administration is getting pass after pass and the problems that poses for Utahns are many and are severe. Primary voters will want to take serious a candidate who can articulate and implement their policies and vision to change Washington.”
Matthew Burbank, a University of Utah political scientist, notes Trump has held his core voters while raising a mountain of money, blunting any momentum from his rivals.
“The DeSantis message is basically ‘I’m not indicted, I don’t have all the baggage…but I can fight the same fight and attack the same people,’” Burbank says. “For people who like Trump that may be appealing. But we haven’t really seen that take off like the DeSantis people thought it would.”
Patterson points out it is still quite early in the primary season and while the field is coming into shape it has not yet congealed.
“We still haven’t seen all the dynamics yet of how these indictments will play out,” he explains, noting that no matter how rabid Trump’s base is, that base will shrink.
“There was already some sort of groundswell among elites to get Ron DeSantis in the race,” he adds. “Mostly it’s the electability issue, but if latter-day saints are any different, it’s that candidate quality really matters. People want to know: ‘what is the character of the candidate?’
It seems to me that latter-day saints have been a little more honest about that than evangelical voters have been.”
As if right on cue, the LDS Church recently made a pronouncement for its flock not to vote straight party ticket. That alone, could have implications for 2024 and Trump.
‘I Love What He’s Doing In Florida’
Despite the early buzz about DeSantis, national polls reflecting a two-to-one Trump lead have held steady. Even in DeSantis’ backyard of Florida, Trump has maintained a lead nearly that large.
Right-leaning Utah voters have signaled some willingness to wander off the Trump reservation and its signature chaos, albeit with limited enthusiasm.
“As I’ve said many times, Trump is damaged goods and has no chance to be elected in ’24,” Rob (last name omitted) posts online. “He has alienated too many voters that any Republican candidate will have to have to be elected. He should step aside. The sooner the RNC realizes this fact the better off Republicans will be. Any Republican candidate except Trump will beat Biden in a landslide.”
“I’m voting for DeSantis,” Chad posts. “If he doesn’t take the primary, I’ll vote Trump but DeSantis would make an excellent president. I love what he’s doing in Florida.”
Others have doubts.
“What is the definition of insanity,” Michael posits? “DeSantis is not much different than Trump. If Republicans elect Trump or DeSantis, they are guaranteed to lose a national election. If they are smart, they will get behind someone like Tim Scott.”
“DeSantis is anything but a bridge builder,” Hayden posts. “He’s another divisive politician. We need to stop lunging at each others throats and try to find a little more common ground in this country.”
“DeSantis has said on Day 1 he will work aggressively to pardon the rioters of January 6, therefore he won’t get my vote and Trump is beyond help,” Brian laments. “No thanks!”
Others have been quick to defend the ex-president.
“Sorry to disappoint you, but your fantasy of Trump going to prison is right up there with those who said he would go to prison for the Russia collusion,” Boxer writes. “Trump will be your next president and that is no fantasy.”
Still others are underwhelmed by the choices and worried about the Republican Party’s rightward lurch.
“For the GOP to win next year, neither Trump nor DeSantis can be the choice topping the ticket,” Cindy posts. “Trump will not win. Although I think DeSantis is a good candidate, I think he will prove too polarizing to pull enough votes.”
“Call me naïve, but I actually think this time around Utahns will not back Trump,” a voter using the name The Meliorist predicts. “They took him at his word the first time, but they won’t make the same mistake twice. Remember, in a deep red state with a weak opponent, Trump only got 45% of the vote in 2016. Since then, he lost an election, orchestrated a failed insurrection, and was found guilty of sexual abuse. If Trump wins the nomination, I predict he loses Utah. The first state to vote to allow women to vote will be the same state that opposes Trump.”
Fight For The Soul Of The Republican Party
To be sure, the GOP primary battle is far from a two-person faceoff. In the Utah primary poll, Cheney comes in third followed by former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley at 8 percent, former Vice President Mike Pence at 6 percent, and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 4 percent.
Axson, the state party chair, says he often hears chatter about Pence, Haley, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and even entrepreneur and author Vivek Ramaswamy, a Republican outsider. He says it would be beneficial for Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson to visit Utah but also notes he has yet to see any enthusiasm in buttoned up Zion for self-avowed brawler Chris Christie, the former New Jersey Governor intent on taking Trump out in 2024.
“This administration is willing to let everything break because they benefit from the chaos and Republicans will push back against that,” Axson says. “It’s important for everybody to take the time and effort to give everybody a fair shot and weigh the pros and cons of a candidacy.”
Major Republican donors this cycle have soured on the twice-impeached ex-president. The Koch network for instance has bankrolled digital ads declaring “Trump can’t win.”
DeSantis has benefited from the deep-pocketed donors who have proven gettable, but his support is lopsided, with a relatively negligible amount of small donor cash.
The other issue for DeSantis is that the growing field to unseat the front-runner complicates his path, particularly in South Carolina. Between Haley and Scott, two of that state’s highest profile politicians pose a major obstacle to DeSantis. Insiders in the DeSantis campaign have grumbled that instead of being legitimate contenders, Haley and Scott are actually running to curry favor with Trump in a ploy to be his vice president.
So, given all of his legal travails and fatigue from independent and moderate voters, how does Trump maintain his early primary hammerlock in the polls?
Burbank, the U of U professor, says his sense is many voters are opting for Trump at the moment because he is the best-known name.
“My guess is what Utah Republicans would really prefer is the old pre-Trump days of a fiscal conservative, free-trade person,” Burbank says, “and there are a few out there such as Tim Scott but there is no name ID or momentum for anyone besides Trump.”
What then are the odds that the GOP’s Trump fever actually breaks — and can Utah play a role? Patterson says never say never, noting by the time Utah votes there should only be two to three candidates left, not eight to 10.
“President Trump will not have received a pass from the candidates who stay in the race for a while,” Patterson explains. “What we’ll see now is going to be a dramatic fight for the soul of the Republican party.”
