In politics, you’re either on-message or you’re losing. Let’s get to it.
Welcome to On Message, a weekly look at where the battle lines are drawn and who is winning the war of words.
This week… Approval Ratings.
Over the past couple of weeks, we’ve seen new approval ratings for President Joe Biden and Governor Spencer Cox.
Spoiler alert: they aren’t identical.
But first, what exactly is an approval rating and what, if anything, does it actually tell us?
Well, an approval rating is exactly what it sounds like… it’s a poll number asking voters if they approve of the job the current office holder is doing.
Simple enough.
Those polls show President Biden’s latest job approval is at 41 percent with 19 percent “strongly” approving of his work thus far and 22 percent “somewhat” approving.
Those numbers are low enough to make some Democrats nervous with midterm elections next year and only slim majorities in the House and Senate for their party.
But does it say much about the 2024 race for the White House? Well, maybe and maybe not.
Remember, the question being asked is only “do you approve of how Biden is handling the job?” and does not ask whether you would prefer the other party’s nominee. Traditionally, an approval rating needs to be at least in the 40s for a president to have a shot at re-election, but the math gets much more murky if the Republicans re-run the guy who already lost the head-to-head matchup.
If Biden’s numbers drop lower, there is a possibility you will hear rumblings that Democrats will have to consider running someone else – though even that is an extreme long shot at this point.
As for Governor Cox, he’s sitting at a solid 62 percent approval rating, good for the tenth highest-score in the nation. Of course, those numbers have little impact on midterm elections at the state level where the Republican supermajority is expected to pick up seats next year.
One benefit for Governor Cox is that he can use the high approval ratings as confirmation bias – essentially showing voters who may have no strong opinion about him one way or the other that everyone else seems to think he’s doing a good job – and that’s a benefit you shouldn’t overlook.
Either way, strong job approval numbers are something to tout when you’ve got them and downplay when you don’t.
That’s it for this week and for 2021. Thanks for watching through 44 episodes this year. We’ll be back in 2022 with more.
Over the break, I’d love to hear what you think. Have your say in the comment section and don’t forget to subscribe to this channel on YouTube.
You can also reach out to me via the social media platform of your choice.
As always, you can find more On Message videos, in-depth Utah political stories and analysis, plus podcasts and more at utahpoliticalundergound.com.
