In politics, you’re either on-message or you’re losing. Let’s get to it.
Welcome to On Message, a weekly look at where the battle lines are drawn and who is winning the war of words.
This week… Independent Streak.
The marquee race on the 2022 ballot in Utah is our only statewide race besides state treasurer and it features Senator Mike Lee vs. the field. And this week, that field grew larger and the race more complex.
Senator Lee already faces two challengers within the Republican Party. Former State Representative Becky Edwards and Ally Isom, who served as deputy chief of staff to Governor Gary Herbert.
And as of this past Tuesday, he will face another name a decent portion of Utahns have voted for… in the general election.
Evan McMullin, last seen as the late-entry, long-shot presidential candidate who received 21 percent of Utah’s vote in 2016, is now running for the U.S. Senate but not as a Republican. Instead, McMullin is running as an independent and that makes this race even more interesting for a number of reasons.
First, although Senator Lee has all the advantages that come with being a conservative Republican incumbent (name recognition, the love of the base, and, of course, cash), he will still have to spend some time and resources to secure the nomination. That could get even more interesting if either Isom or Edwards were to drop out, minimizing the votes they are likely to split. Either way, Lee is the odds-on favorite to win the GOP nomination.
Normally, that’s all it takes to cruise to re-election in the Beehive State. But while the Republican candidates focus on securing the nomination, McMullin will be waiting and taking advantage of every move they make to appease the most conservative voters who don’t always see eye-to-eye with the majority of general-election Republican voters.
What I find most interesting about McMullin’s decision to run as an independent is the message angle it gives him.
No doubt, there are hyper-partisan people who live and die with the elephants and donkeys… but there are also a lot of people who know that in a democracy you don’t get everything you want; who believe politics shouldn’t be a sport or a religion; and who just want government to do its job without taking over their lives.
And that’s where McMullin is going to target his message.
Evan McMullin: “I’m not running as a Republican or a Democrat but as a Patriot committed to defending our nation. I invite everyone, regardless of party, to join me in bringing a new brand of leadership to Washington, to secure America’s future for our children and generations to come. Together, we will renew America.”
McMullin’s general position of country over party is one that could very well strike the right tone with a large portion of Utah voters.
Not having to appeal to the party base (the MAGA ultra-conservatives who wouldn’t vote for him because he ran against Trump in 2016 anyway) means he can hit that message every time a Republican candidate has to position to the right through the convention and the primary.
McMullin can appeal to the same GOP voters who may support Isom or Edwards, but add to that group moderate Republicans who will vote in the general but skip the convention and primary, as well as Democrats who may see him as their best hope to oust Lee.
Whether he’ll have the money to compete is something to keep an eye on. But if he does and if his message hits the right tone with that broad group… this race just got more interesting.
That’s it for this week.
More On Message in the next issue of the Utah Political Underground.
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