In politics, you’re either on message or you are losing. Let’s get to it.
Welcome to On Message, a weekly look at where the battle lines are drawn and who is winning the war of words.
This week… POLITICAL HAIL MARY.
One of the few interesting races in Utah politics is up in Davis County, where six-term Republican House member, Stephen Handy, is still running to retain his seat, even though his name is not on the ballot.
Handy made the curious decision back in March to leave his political fate to the delegates – depsite the fact he’s seen as one of the more moderate Republicans in the body and in recent years the delegates have become generally allergic to moderates.
Handy could have spent around ten thousand dollars to gather signatures to ensure himself a place on the primary ballot and likely guaranteed his re-election.
But he didn’t and now his path to re-election is far more challenging because he has to get enough voters to write his name on the ballot instead of refexively voting for the Republican.
There is some precedence for write-in campaigns succeeding. In Alaska back in 2010, SenatorLisa Murkowski was beaten in a primary only to launch a write-in campaign and retain her seat. She faced an obstacle Handy doesn’t in that her last name is much more difficul to spell. Closer to home, supporters urged former Governor Jon Huntsman to consider a write-in campaign after losing in the 2020 primary by one percent.
Deciding whether or not to pursue a write-in campaign is a tricky one. Do you have enough name ID to win? Do you want to risk losing to the same opponent two or in some cases three times in a single election cycle? The odds are such that many decide against it.
Smart money is on the candidate with his or her name on the ballot, for sure, but I think this is one that might just work out for Handy for a couple of reasons: thanks to ecclisiastical service, he’s well known among a large part of his district – perhaps more so than most House members; he’s been in office long-enough that he’s also got some name recognition that way; he benefits from a lack of high-profile races in our state so a write-in draws media attention that helps get his voters engaged; and he’s going to do some clever things like send every voter a pen with his name on it so they can write him in.
I wouldn’t bet the house on it, but I also wouldn’t be surprise if Handy is back in the House for the 2023 session.
That’s it for this week.
More On Message in the next issue of the Utah Political Underground.
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