SALT LAKE CITY — Every 10 years after new U.S. Census counts come out, states take up the task of redrawing district boundaries for their Congressional, legislative and school board slots.
For Utah in 2021, this arduous process could prove even more challenging due to the COVID-19 pandemic, delayed Census data, and implementation of last year’s legislative compromise to Prop. 4, a ballot initiative voters narrowly passed in 2018 to establish an independent advisory commission that would redraw those lines.
That 2020 compromise set aside $1 million for the new seven-member commission to do its work, but also made sure state lawmakers retained authority to conduct the same process themselves and also have the final say on which maps get approved.
This past week, state Senate and House leaders, along with Gov. Spencer Cox, announced their picks for the independent commission — a skilled crew with a hard trek ahead, since population counts aren’t expected to arrive until late August or early September rather than April.
The independents
- Rex Facer (picked by Gov. Cox) is the chairman. Facer is an associate professor at BYU’s Romney Institute of Public Service and Ethics
- Rob Bishop (picked by House Speaker Brad Wilson) was a state representative from 1978-1994, served as House speaker two of those years, then chaired the Utah Republican Party for four years before handily winning Utah’s 1st Congressional seat in 2002. He occupied that slot until retiring in 2020.
- Lyle Hillyard (picked by Senate Pres. Stuart Adams) served from 1980 to 1984 in the State House, then from 1984 to 2020 in the Utah Senate.
- Jeffrey Baker (picked jointly by Adams and Wilson) is a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analyst for Davis County.
- Christine Durham (picked by Sen. Minority Leader Karen Mayne) served as a Utah Supreme Court justice from 1982 to 2017, and 10 of those years as chief justice.
- Pat Jones (picked by House Minority Leader former state Sen. Brian King) served in Utah’s House from 2000 to 2006, then the state Senate from 2006 to 2014. She now heads up the Women’s Leadership Institute
- William A. Thorne Jr. (picked jointly by King & Mayne) has been a judge since 1986, first in Salt Lake City’s Third Circuit Court, then Utah’s Third District Court, and for the past 20 years in Utah’s Court of Appeals.
What’s at stake?
Noah Rosenberg, acting executive director for Better Boundaries (betterboundaries.org), said he’s been with the nonprofit since its start. The organization served as the main driver behind Prop 4, the citizen initiative aimed at preventing gerrymandering, a term that refers to the drawing of district boundaries to benefit a political party or an individual.
“Our real focus has been how can we make sure that people feel both a part of choosing their representatives, but also a part of this primordial system … for us It’s been about making sure Utahns have that voice and that buy-in,” Rosenberg said.
For at least three decades, the Republican Party’s domination in Utah has effectively rendered many general election votes moot, an imbalance that contributes to poor voter turnout.
“From my perspective working on redistricting reform, I think what’s at stake is whether or not the public trusts the maps that are ultimately drawn,” Rosenberg said.
Tasks and timeline
The independent commission, after holding public meetings throughout the state to gather input, will use the new census data to draw three potential maps for each of Utah’s four Congressional districts,104 legislative seats and State School Board slots.
That equates to a lot of map-drawing in a short amount of time. Each district must have approximately the same number of residents, and also be as compact as possible. A third goal is to keep communities of interest intact.
“That’s a squishy term that can mean anything a community wants it to. They just need to show up and make a reasonable argument that they’re a community,” Rosenberg said, acknowledging that two communities of interest might be at odds with each other in the same geographic area — hence the need for three maps per district.
“There will always be times where you’ll have to decide which community of interest to preserve,” Rosenberg said, “and it’s not necessarily true one community is more deserving than another.”
In a “normal” year, Census data would arrive by the end of March. But several things happened to delay gathering and canvassing of that data, so states will now get those vital numbers three to five months later.
But here’s the real time crunch: Utah’s Legislature needs to finalize new district boundaries before the end of the year, because on Jan. 1 candidates must declare whether they’ll collect signatures to be assured a spot in the 2022 primaries.
“They can’t gather signatures if they don’t know what district they live in and are running for,” Rosenberg said.
Redundant efforts
All the time and work put in by the independent commission could be for naught if the Legislature chooses to reject its maps. After all, they’ll have their own redistricting committee performing the same tasks.
That committee, composed of House and Senate members from both parties, will be chaired by Sen. Scott Sandall, a Tremonton Republican, and Rep. Paul Ray, a Republican from Clinton.
As Sandall described it, the Legislature is duty-bound to redraw and approve districts every decade.
After Prop 4 passed, Sandall said lawmakers were ”constitutionally made aware that the legislature can’t completely cede that authority.” Hence the compromise.
“So it was negotiated with Better Boundaries that they would do their work and then present their findings to a committee meeting of the Legislature,” Sandall said. “They may come back with maps that seem very logical, reasonable, and that we agree to.”
Sandall declined to predict whether the two panels — one independent, the other legislative — would compete or collaborate.
“It’s something new we’re going to try. There will be separate meetings, separate hearings, we’ll kind of run parallel paths,” Sandall said. “I’m hoping we gather good information on both sides that will help us arrive at the most correct decision we can.”
But given the pandemic and time constraints of 2021, Sandall has modest expectations: “My highest hope is that we all survive it, that we get the data sooner rather than later, and finally, if we can get consensus around 70 to 80 percent of the maps we draw, we may have the best solution we can hope for.”
Drafting an unknown
While Jeffrey Baker may lack the name recognition his fellow members on the independent commission enjoy, he could very well be their ace in the hole.
“I’m surprised at the makeup of the commission: three former lawmakers, two former judges — one a state Supreme Court justice, a professor from BYU and then a man who makes maps, that’s me,” Baker said.
But map-making can get very complex, and Baker acknowledged that he’ll be bringing the technical component.
Over his 26 years in Geographic Information Systems, Baker said he’s seen his share of good maps and bad maps, and both get corresponding results.
“I’ve seen multi-million-dollar mistakes from simple mapping errors,” Baker said.
Rosenberg of Better Boundaries noted that maps should keep cities and counties whole as much as possible, and follow natural and manmade geographic boundaries such as mountains, rivers, railroads and freeways.
While the task looms large, Baker is excited about the opportunity.
“I’m going to rub shoulders with some very experienced and knowledgeable individuals,” Baker said. “I’m looking forward to that in addition to doing the technical work in trying to create a future for Utah that hopefully will be as fair to everybody as it can be.”
Switching teams?
Some have questioned why Rob Bishop landed on the independent commission — and at times he appeared to be wondering the same thing. The veteran lawmaker and deep-red Republican said he’s been involved in every redistricting since 1980, first at the state then later at the federal level.
Bishop said he really doesn’t know what to expect as the dual efforts play out. But he described what he views as a sharp difference between the two panels.
“A legislative body has to stand and explain their rationale and reasons, and stand for election afterward,” Bishop said. “Independent commissions don’t do that. They can do their work and go back into the woodwork and hide if they wish.”
He also has no expectations yet for what the independent commission can accomplish.
“It’s too early for me to say — I really don’t know,” Bishop said.
However, after more than four decades in elected office, Bishop hopes to supply some expertise as they aim for numeric equality and geographic compactness in every district.
“I did two redistricting sessions as a legislator, one as party chairman involved in the process, and one as a congressman involved in the process,” Bishop said. “So, this will be the one as a private citizen and I don’t really know what to anticipate.”
But Bishop scoffed at the notion that gerrymandering poses much of a threat.
“Gerrymandering has a lot of definitions and connotations to each group,” Bishop said. “Most of the time when people throw out the term, what they’re really saying is ‘my candidate didn’t win, so I want some way to explain it.’”
Bishop also mused about the fiscal sense of funding the independent effort.
“I don’t know what the staffing for this commission will be. And that becomes extremely important because the commission can only be as good as the information they have,” Bishop said. “Will the million dollars the Legislature set aside bring value or will it be wasted?”
Been here before
David Irvine, an attorney and former Republican state lawmaker, sits on the board of Alliance for a Better Utah, a nonprofit advocacy group that threw its clout behind Prop 4.
After the Legislative compromise, Irvine wonders if this year’s redistricting efforts will mirror what happened in 1981.
“Scott Matheson (a Democrat) was governor, the Republicans had a majority in both houses of the Legislature — as has been the case for 30 years,” Irvine said
In spite of the Legislature’s “strong, deep feelings that nobody else has any business mucking around in their sole domain,” Irvine said that Matheson appointed an independent redistricting commission.
“And I was part of it,” Irvine said.
That process, forty years ago, spanned six to seven months, he recalled.
“We held hearings throughout the state to try to get local commentary. It was a serious effort,” Irvine said.
And similar to 2021, the Legislature conducted its own redistricting process in tandem.
“We undertook a parallel effort … and came up with what we thought was a pretty good set of maps,” Irvine said. “But the Legislature ash canned it the minute they arrived — and that was that.”
So Irvine is watching this year’s process with great interest. He did note a key difference between Prop 4 and the Legislative compromise.
“The one thing that the Legislature refused to agree to when they whacked away at Prop 4 was the requirement that if the Legislature varied from the commission’s recommendation, it would have to explain (why),” Irvine said. “And that was a bridge too far for legislators, they wouldn’t have anything to do with that.”
Irvine predicts they’ll likely be a little more PR-conscious this time around.
Unlike Bishop, Irvine views gerrymandering as a real problem — but mainly at the Congressional level.
“The way the four Districts have been carved up is an abomination,” Irvine said, noting that Utah’s 2nd District stretches from Davis County along the west side of Salt Lake County down to St. George. “And the cracking up of Salt Lake into four of the districts makes it impossible for the Democratic or independent voters in Salt Lake County to have much of a say in electing who their person in Congress is going to be.”
Making it work
Rex Facer, the BYU professor tasked with leading the independent commission, acknowledged the size of the task before them: “I’m afraid it’s a much larger job than anybody tried to tell me when I accepted,” he said with a grin, adding that “I’m very ready and willing to be as helpful as I can to the state.”
While the data delay, coupled with the need to maintain social distance further complicate their work, Facer is determined to plow ahead.
“Fortunately we do have examples of people successfully doing these kinds of things, and we’ll find ways to be successful in inviting and engaging with the public,” Facer said. “At this point, I assume much of that will be virtual, but I need feedback from our commission members as well as guidance from our public health officials.”
Facer described compact districts as “the opposite of gerrymandering.”
“One of the problems of gerrymandering has been the disconnect between different parts of a district. That is a real challenge,” he said.
Facer also compared redistricting to solving a big puzzle. It can get messy.
“It’s virtually impossible to get everything in nice, neat packages. So there may be some occasional odd lines but we want to keep that to a minimum,” Facer said.
And he applauded a key difference between the independent commission and the Legislative committee conducting the same effort: “we have no dog in the fight.”
“So hopefully we won’t be pressured to draw districts that are designed to favor an individual candidate or party,” Facer said. “We’re really trying to do what’s in the interest of the state.”
