Will Dems Turn to Independent Evan McMullin to Try to Satiate a 50-year Senate Drought
If you can’t beat ‘em, join him.
A cadre of Utah Democratic luminaries, convinced their own candidate will get creamed by Mike Lee, are getting creative — and controversial — by instead backing Independent Evan McMullin in this year’s Senate race.
The unconventional effort, whose fate will be decided by delegates at the April 23rdDemocratic Convention, is designed to end a 50-year dry spell for Utah Democrats in the upper chamber. But it would mean sidelining Democratic candidate Kael Weston, who tried unsuccessfully to unseat Rep. Chris Stewart in 2020, but insists is the best-connected to rural Utahns concerned about growth, drought, housing costs and healthcare. He calls April 23rd “a conscience vote.”
So, is this an audacious gambit? Savvy strategy? Traitor behavior? Or all three?
“There’s too much at stake in this election for us not to try something new,” says former Congressman Ben McAdams, who is heading the charge to convince delegates to keep Weston off the ballot and coalesce behind McMullin. “The path to pushing back on this far-right surge that we’re seeing in Utah is for independents, Democrats and moderate Republicans to join together to say, ‘that’s not who we are and that’s not what Utah is.’”
Not The Same Old Approach
Former President Donald Trump recently endorsed Lee, taking things predictably further by mocking McMullin as “Evan McMuffin.” For their part, the McMullin campaign has kept the criticism on Lee, arguing the two-term Senator makes a habit of engaging in political games, threatens to shut down the government, and displays divisive leadership that Utahns reject.
What’s more, the McMullin camp notes Lee surrogates are openly rooting for Weston to be on the ballot — a sign, they argue, that a three-person race would split the anti-Lee vote and guarantee his re-election.
“It’s clear that a majority want to replace Mike Lee,” says McMullin Campaign Manager Andrew Roberts. “Evan is working hard to build a coalition of Democrats, independents, and principled Republicans.”
A recent Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics survey finds Lee leading his re-election race with 43 percent, followed by McMullin at 19 percent and Weston at 11 percent. Interestingly, the poll shows 24 percent of voters are still undecided.
Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson, who has also endorsed McMullin, says that while Weston is a great guy and this is not personal, forming an alliance with the independent is the only way to have any level of representation at the federal level.
“Evan’s not a Republican,” Wilson says. “The delegates who seem to be very fired up about this approach really care about our party’s values being represented in a congressional seat. My response to them is that is not an option — that is the approach we’ve tried time and time again.”
To illustrate the point, Wilson points out her own loss to Sen. Mitt Romney, adding that McAdams cannot win a statewide seat, “and neither can Kael Weston.”
“We’re not Oregon and we’re not Massachusetts, and unfortunately, with gerrymandering, we’re not getting any closer,” the Democratic county mayor adds. “This is a smart, pragmatic step.”
Lee’s job approval rating of 42 percent essentially mirrors the number he got in the latest general election poll. But political observers note anything below 50 percent for an incumbent suggests vulnerability.
On the Democratic side, 38 percent support Weston in the survey, while 21 percent sided with McMullin, who ran for President as a never-Trump independent in 2016. Nearly a third of Democrats remain undecided.
McAdams first struck up a friendship with McMullin in Washington then publicly endorsed him last fall, heeding the call to join the coalition. “I really respect him as someone who is very intelligent, very competent, and has a very strong moral compass,” McAdams says. “If this is a two-way race between Evan and Mike Lee, Evan could be the frontrunner. If it’s a three-way race, Kael Weston splits the vote and probably gets 10 percent. That might be enough to re-elect Mike Lee.”
Last Saturday, McAdams stood for five hours at the Salt Lake County Convention holding a McMullin sign and jawing with delegates about joining the coalition.
“I’m feeling pretty optimistic,” he says. “For the most part, the majority of the people there were supportive of the idea. I’m feeling like the momentum’s on Evans’ side to not have a Democrat in the race.”
The Utah Democratic Party notes it is bound by their rules to remain neutral in a contested nomination contest and will wait for the April 23 delegate vote.
Wilson says her sense is that the concern about abandoning Weston in favor of McMullin is coming from people she calls repeat delegates rather than general Democrats.
“There were definitely people who are involved in the party who are very committed to Kael,” she says. “They cannot wrap their heads around what this would look like. I know for a fact there are delegates who think this is a great idea. There are people on both sides.”
There is not much precedent for major parties circumventing their own candidates in favor of independents in congressional races nationwide. In 2014, former Democrat Greg Orman ran as an independent against incumbent Kansas Senator Pat Roberts but lost by 10 points, 53 to 43 percent. Orman went on to run for Kansas governor as an independent in 2018, but got wiped out, mustering just 6 percent of the vote.
Democratic Response
Fighting for solid cell reception in his treasured southern Utah, Weston is quick to cite the tale of the tape, proclaiming to be in “the best political shape” after his 2020 race against Stewart in the 2nd District.
Weston has crisscrossed 14 of Utah’s 29 counties, meeting with rural residents. He secured nearly 37 percent of the vote two years ago with no TV ads and snagged close to 130,000 voters.
“When Democrats hold the line and rally in an anti-Lee effort, we’re the most significant reason, not Evan McMullin,” says Weston, an 11-year U.S. State Department veteran, who spent seven of those years in Iraq and Afghanistan, before teaching at Marine Corps University and writing a war book.
“I have been through harder things than Utah politics,” he adds. “I’ve been in two war zones. I’ve had rocket-propelled grenades launched over my head. I’ve been shot at. I don’t go home at night crying that a mayor or Ben didn’t endorse me. This is about voters.”
Weston says that while Democratic insiders try to “short circuit” an election process on April 23, he’s out meeting voters — “our neighbors” — discussing housing affordability, infrastructure, healthcare and “water, water, water.”
“If I’m off the ballot, the biggest losers will be all the voters waiting at a bus stop, not to go to a ski resort…but to go to their second or third job,” Weston says. “I love being on the side of half a million Utahns. We need a real marketplace of political ideas and discussion, and I’m sorry but Lee and McMullin are just too similar.”
Roberts, McMullin’s campaign manager, counters that the independent will fight for voting rights, democracy, air quality, improving the Affordable Care Act and getting rid of special interest groups.
“There are plenty of differences between Evan and Mike Lee and Kael Weston knows better,” Roberts says.
Besides McAdams and Wilson, the Democrats wanting to play the inside straight include former Congresswoman Karen Shepherd and former Salt Lake County Mayor and Utah Democratic Party Chair Peter Corroon.
“They see an opportunity where Democrats, who are not otherwise competitive, have a chance to elect someone who will stand up for democracy and decency,” Roberts adds.
Before running for President as an anti-Trump candidate, McMullin carved out a reputation conservatives loved as a CIA agent hunting down terrorists after 9-11. Since Trump’s GOP takeover, McMullin has served as a moderating voice that supporters say better reflects the values of the so-called “Utah Way.”
Even so, Weston argues voters have tired of Republican party infighting and the Donald Drama and would prefer politicians figure out a way to stem 30 percent rent increases and the unrelenting drought.
“Lee and McMullin are already focused on negativity and throwing mud and I think voters lose out if that’s the choice,” Weston says. “Our ceiling is the highest ceiling and the clearest lane.”
McAdams doesn’t buy it. “The sad thing to me is everyone knows Kael will lose,” he says. “They say, ‘it’s better to lose with a Democrat than to win with a coalition.’ That’s disappointing to me.”
Money Talks
In the first quarter alone, McMullin raised north of one million dollars, eclipsing Lee’s cash intake and dwarfing Weston’s.
“I didn’t raise a million in my entire 19 months of campaigning as a Democrat” (against Romney), Wilson remembers. “As an independent, he’s pulling this off? There’s so many pragmatic reasons Democrats should get behind this.”
McAdams recalls efforts in the 4th District, when the campaign poured big dollars into turnout efforts for Democrats, independents and moderate Republicans, which helped down-ballot candidates. He predicts McMullin’s fundraising prowess can do the same this time.
“Evan has showed he is more than capable of raising the money and Lee will have an expensive primary,” he says. “It will be an energizing race. Nothing suppresses the vote more than to look October 1st and see the candidates you want polling 35 points down from the frontrunner. People stay home.”
Lee faces a primary challenge in June by former state lawmaker Becky Edwards and Ally Isom, a community and business leader. Polling shows Lee with comfortable margins over both.
Following a 2021 state law that established March 31 as an earlier deadline to switch party affiliation, less than half the number of Democrats as in 2020 participated in so-called “party raiding” this year. Political insiders suggest that is because Democrats are focused on the Senate race and what to do regarding McMullin.
On the Republican side, only a third of the number of unaffiliated voters registered as Republicans in 2022 compared to the number in 2020. The idea that voters from either side could successfully game the system to vote for a weaker candidate was not born out in 2020 and appears extremely unlikely this cycle.
For his part, Weston concedes his campaign won’t come close to raising $1 million. But he downplays the need, noting McMullin’s cash is already being used to go anti-Lee on TV.
McMullin recently launched digital ads criticizing Lee for his support of Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 election. And he tweeted that Lee “sacrificed his honor and values to serve (Trump) at the expense of Utah and our nation. I will not.”
Roberts says his candidate will run much the way he did in the Presidential in 2016. McMullin, he says, will seek to represent civility and bipartisanship and a way of governing that is not beholden to the extremes. If Weston is elected by delegates to run against Lee as the Democrat, Roberts says, it complicates the math.
“There are definitely Democrats within the party that are very unhappy about this and think we ought to be beholden to the party label, win or lose,” Roberts explains. “On the other hand, you’ve got a large group of Democrats who understand Evan is inviting them into this coalition and who is inviting them in a way Senator Lee has never shown any inkling of doing. They know Evan doesn’t check every box, but they understand a Democrat has not won a statewide race in over 50 years.”
Beyond this cycle and this Senate race, both McAdams and Wilson see bigger symbolism for Utah with a centralized coalition.
“Once you’re in office, it’s a hell of a lot more impactful than standing and shouting from the rooftop,” Wilson says. “Both parties are too polarized right now. The idea that there can be a coalition between centralized Democrats and centralized Republicans in Utah — that can be interesting in a polarized time.”
McAdams agrees the movement makes sense, especially given the compassionate views by a majority of Utahns on issues such as immigration, LGBTQ rights and the “Utah Way.”
“People have taken note that Utah is different,” he says, “but this would really send a loud signal that we cannot be put in a box and we can tear down the walls for something that is really important.”
