In Senate Race With National Implications, Independent McMullin Couldn’t Coax Enough Republicans
The history-defying midterms may at once be remembered for igniting Donald Trump’s political pyre and producing a red ripple just deep enough to quench Evan McMullin’s independent spark.
Despite being the most competitive Senate contest Utah has seen in decades, Sen. Mike Lee comfortably earned a third term, beating back the independent McMullin, whom Democrats had backed instead of fielding a sacrificial lamb. With more than 100,000 votes left to count in Salt Lake County, the McMullin camp insists the final margin will tighten, likely to single digits.
“He just ran the most competitive statewide race that any of us have seen in our lifetimes,” McMullin campaign manager Andrew Roberts says about the former Republican, who left the party in 2016 when Trump became the GOP presidential nominee to run for president himself, as an independent.
Hoping he could hold Democrats, a majority of independents, and enough Republicans, McMullin’s independent gambit to unseat Lee captured the attention of national political pundits and GOP-backed PACs alike, the latter hurling millions at the race in the final weeks.
Lee’s triumph was a rare election-night reprieve for Republicans during an otherwise dreary, historical flop. The party of the president has only avoided a so-called midterm wave four times. It happened in 1934, during the early recovery from the Great Depression. Again in 1962, when the nation exhaled in relief after the Cuban missile crisis. Then not until the late-90s economic boom in 1998 and lastly in 2002, when the country rallied around the flag following 9/11.
President Biden has drooping approval numbers, persistent inflation and painful gas prices, questions about his age and mental acuity, and a costly war with Russia in Ukraine. Despite that, independents and particularly young voters broke big for Democrats. For the first time since 1934 the midterm party in power did not lose a single statehouse, but rather added to their ranks. Democrats added governor’s mansions. And exit polling suggested, up and down the ballot, that voters were rejecting election denialism, January 6 apologists, and a post-Roe cultural agenda that seems to many Americans regressive and repressive.
It was also a repudiation of Trump, whose public endorsements of MAGA-spouting Senate candidates in swing states looks to have backfired, costing the GOP the Senate. Trump has now failed to win at the ballot box in six years.
On Monday, griping they are “tired of losing,” nearly 100 Utah Republican officeholders released a statement urging Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, not Trump, to run for president in 2024. It marks a stark and stunning rebuke of the former president for legions of GOP powerbrokers who routinely defended Trump’s rhetoric, no matter how outrageous.
Close, But No Dynamic-Shifting Solution to the GOP Chokehold
Late on election night, presumptive GOP Speaker Kevin McCarthy announced Republicans would have a House majority when they woke in the morning. They’re still waiting.
Widespread projections of flipping 20 to 30 Democratic seats dwindled to single digits and political analysts now project the GOP majority will be just five seats.
But since all of Utah’s Republican congressmen won in a walk, the Lee-McMullin battle captured outsize attention as the only game in town.
Matthew Burbank, a Political Science professor at the University of Utah, says McMullin’s goal of getting most independents, all Democrats and enough disaffected Republicans was difficult to pull off.
“That’s a tough strategy under any circumstance,” Burbank says. “Early on, people could project anything they wanted onto McMullin, people found reasons to support him, namely that he wasn’t Mike Lee. But as the campaign progressed, it became a choice. People had different sets of info based on all the negative ads.”
In the end, he says, “this was mostly just Republican voters voting for an incumbent Republican senator.”
Political scientist Leah Murray, who is the director of the Walker Institute of Politics & Public Policy at Weber State University, says she thought it was a mistake last spring for Democrats to back McMullin.
“Honestly, I never thought he had a chance,” Murray says. “The Democrats put themselves in a position in this state of not being an honest broker and backing a candidate. Why would I put my name out there if my party is just going to bail on me?”
Murray said she was not surprised tying Lee to the Jan. 6 insurrection did not sway many voters, noting that narrative was only persuasive in purple states.
“Utah’s not a purple state,” she says. “I would have probably tried to go after him on why people didn’t like him. That’s what Becky Edwards and Ally Isom were doing. (Lee) was in the low-40s in his approval rating and I don’t think that was all because of the insurrection.”
Unlike swing state Senate candidates who ultimately lost, there is some distance between Lee and Trump, according to Murray, which gave the incumbent the ability to focus on bashing Democrats for economic problems. The late Lee endorsement by former Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr., she says, also helped.
“Huntsman is establishment Republican in a really non-threatening way,” she notes. “It probably allowed Republicans feeling uncomfortable with Trump enough latitude and leeway to come back and vote for (Lee).”
In October, Lee injected some drama into the race when he appeared on “Tucker Carlson Tonight” to complain about McMullin’s fundraising and plead for fellow Sen. Mitt Romney’s endorsement.
“I’ve asked him, I’m asking right here again tonight right now,” Lee said. “Please get on board. Help me win reelection.”
Despite Lee’s begging on national television, Romney stuck to his pledge of not endorsing either candidate, insisting both were good friends.
Prior to politics, McMullin was an undercover CIA operative. During the campaign, he called the text messages tying Lee to attempts to overturn the 2020 election the most egregious betrayal of the U.S. Constitution that any senator has ever done.
Given the battle Lee just survived, will he keep his distance from Trump or jump back on the Trump train, Burbank wonders, especially as candidates jockey for 2024 positions?
“What I’m hoping he learned through that process is support for Trump is a one-way street,” Burbank says. “Trump did endorse Mike Lee but what did that really do for him? I would hope he understands the Republican party has to get over Donald Trump if it’s going to have any political future.”
‘Where We Lost Was With The Republicans’
Even though Lee’s victory was called relatively early on election night, the race was more competitive than Senate contests in Colorado or Florida, the McMullin campaign boasts, and, if it ends up in single digits, it’s akin to hotly contested Ohio.
It is also the closest Utah Senate outcome since 1976, which McMullin noted in his concession speech. “Although our coalition did not prevail, we’ve done something here in Utah that hasn’t been done in 50 years,” he said. “We rejected the politics of division and extremism and we united. Unity is what made this election the most competitive in nearly half a century.”
McMullin also praised his “unprecedented” coalition, arguing that “America does stand at the crossroads between democracy and despotism.”
“I truly hope that he upholds his oath to the Constitution during his upcoming term,” McMullin said about Lee.
During his victory speech, Lee thanked voters for his reelection. “The people of this state, of our great country, deserve nothing less and that is precisely what they will get…(in the) next six years. The best is yet to come. I can’t wait.”
It was the most competitive U.S Senate race Lee has faced since defeating then-incumbent Sen. Bob Bennett in 2010 atop a Tea Party surge.
Lee should have beat a generic opponent by 25 points or more, explains Roberts, the McMullin campaign manager, calling this the biggest overperformance against a Republican incumbent of anyone in the country.
When polls showed a tight race in October, outside groups such as Club for Growth funneled millions into ad campaigns in an effort to smear McMullin and save Lee. Messages accused McMullin of being a Democrat, tied him to Biden’s “failed” policies, and suggested McMullin favored abortions all the way up to full term.
“There was no shame on that side of the aisle,” Roberts says. “When you have enough money to put behind a lie, it certainly becomes a pretty potent lie.” Outside groups backing Lee outspent McMullin three to one, Roberts says.
The race was one of the most expensive in Utah political history, having cost more than $30 million, according to opensecrets.org. The website bases election spending on Federal Election Commission campaign finance reports.
During the debate, Lee was challenged on why he was doing so much to support Trump while not supporting the country. Burbank says “that never seemed to get a whole lot of traction.”
“For most Republican voters it was about inflation, taxes, crime, the border,” Burbank adds. “’Mike Lee says he’s going to help with all these things and Democrats won’t help with all these things.’”
Criticism of Lee regarding Trump, including the insurrection, worked with voters McMullin already had, Roberts says.
“It matters and it needs to be said out loud,” he explains. “It would be great if more voters were concerned about democracy than kitchen table issues, but you can’t fault them for that.”
Despite the influx of outside cash for Lee, the McMullin campaign insists they came close to hitting their targets. To win, Roberts says they needed 93 percent of Democrats and 64 percent of the unaffiliated or independent vote, which they got. But they also needed 25 percent of Republicans and garnered only 20 percent.
“Where we lost was with the Republicans,” Roberts says.
Asked if Utah Republicans turned off by Trump may have still voted for Lee to boost the GOP’s chances of securing the Senate, neither political scientist seemed swayed.
“That’s a fairly strategic calculation,” Burbank says. “It was never really convincing that this vote in Utah was going to decide the control of the Senate. It’s not like Georgia. Utah’s never played that role.”
Still, the race ended up on the national radar, a novelty for both voters and political organizations.
“The whole goal of the national Republican Party was to win control of the Senate,” Roberts adds. “You better believe they would have rather spent the $22 million they spent on this race in Nevada or Arizona.”
Elections Nationalized
As Trump defies advisors and party poohbahs to press on with a campaign launch, the GOPs bitter loss of the Senate and competitive races nationwide raises serious questions about his chances of winning back the White House.
Indeed, Trump’s omnipresence and rallies nationalized a midterm where many Republican bosses preferred to make it a referendum on Biden’s caretaking of the economy, or lack thereof.
To be sure, the GOP’s seemingly certain takeover of House control will blunt Biden’s agenda and cement a series of investigations — including into his son Hunter — into our smartphones. But the tiny majority will render the radical conspiracy theory caucus ascendant and make life difficult for the Speaker, McCarthy or otherwise.
Meantime, Biden is afforded two more years to remake the judiciary and the Democratic control of the Senate will spare the president from Senate subpoenas and investigations.
Burbank, the political science professor at the U., predicts the midterms will provide the Utah GOP cover to finally abandon the former one-term president.
“I don’t think Republicans here ever really liked Trump,” he posits. “What you’re likely to see is that Republican voters in Utah are not going back to Trump. He just has too much personal and professional baggage. If he becomes the nominee, would they vote for him at the end of the day? Probably. Would they have any enthusiasm for him? No.”
Burbank says Lee may veer away from Trump and back to Senate pal Ted Cruz.
“For Republicans, what do they do until Trump is out of the way,” Burbank wonders? “The real question for Lee is what does he do as we think about 2024? My guess is he largely tries to stay out of this. Once it becomes clear that there are a couple of people left, he makes his preference…but I don’t see him being an early person to offer support to any candidate.”
Murray, the Weber State professor, says that while Utah is a strong one-party state, it’s not a lock-step party.
“There will be a lot of soul-searching on the right, but you can’t do victory laps on the left,” she says. “Nobody won.”
“Tuesday was huge for DeSantis,” Murray adds. “Going into Tuesday, Trump was still the guy. Coming out of Tuesday, DeSantis is the guy.”
The nationalized Utah Senate race opened Murray’s eyes on one front. Having lived in Utah for 20 years, she says she’s never seen so many negative ads in a Beehive State general election. If future statewide races could be close, she predicts, “2022 showed it would get ugly.”
For his part, McMullin remains bullish on a new coalition of Democrats, independents and moderate Republicans to somehow penetrate our partisan divide. Problem is, while trying to be everything to everybody, he may not be substantive enough for anybody.
Burbank says he may have some role in a post-Trump party — but probably not. “Having run as an independent here, that certainly doesn’t win a whole lot of support as a Republican,” he says. “He’s raised money and shown he can raise money, but is there a future for him in electoral politics here in Utah? I’m not sure there is.”
Murray concurs that a political future for McMullin in Utah seems hard to see. Because he publicly declined to caucus with either party, Murray says his policy positions are hard to discern.
“I don’t know who he is,” she says. “Where does he go? He’s not a Democrat and he’s now proven himself twice to be totally disloyal to the Republicans.”
That shows a total lack of imagination, Roberts counters. “Had we prevailed, Evan would have had enormous outsize influence in Washington.”
Turns out, Utah voters didn’t wrestle very long with their imagination.
Quips Murray, “they’re who I thought they were.”
